Mon, Dec 23, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 110 | 110 | 331 |
| MIN | 112 | 18 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47CHIConnor BedardAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:11MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 6:16CHINick FolignoAssists: Frank Nazar, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 7:05MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Yakov Trenin, Devin Shore · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:43MINBrock FaberAssists: Jonas Brodin, Marat Khusnutdinov · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:36MINMarcus FolignoENGWGAssists: Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
- P3 19:27CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Lukas Reichel, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (1)
- P3 5:02CHIConnor Bedard: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Donato – Nazar12:10
xG 0.87–0.44 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Maroon – Anderson – Reichel4:27
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Bedard13:39
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev10:34
xG 0.10–0.83 (10%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Vlasic2:02
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brodie – Korchinski12:59
xG 0.87–0.72 (55%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Murphy – Vlasic17:33
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi15:59
xG 1.19–0.19 (86%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1
- Shore – Trenin – Jones5:24
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Khusnutdinov9:48
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Boldy13:24
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber19:22
xG 1.53–0.77 (66%)attempts 25–13goals 1–2
- Spurgeon – Chisholm18:59
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Merrill11:05
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).