Mon, Dec 23, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 07 | 118 | 132 |
| VGK | 112 | 010 | 211 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:19VGKTanner PearsonSHAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 1:13ANAMason McTavishAssists: Radko Gudas, Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 9:36VGKTomas HertlGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 15:50VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: William Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:46ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:54VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 17:32VGKTanner Laczynski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:51VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 15:47ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:24ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:50VGKKeegan Kolesar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Leason – Carlsson6:40
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason2:45
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Harkins – Terry – Lundeström2:04
xG 0.02–0.01 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier9:56
xG 0.53–1.36 (28%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger11:54
xG 0.98–0.76 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Gudas – LaCombe11:18
xG 0.41–1.33 (23%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson13:35
xG 0.18–1.55 (10%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Hertl – Kolesar9:38
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Stone – Olofsson – Eichel9:25
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Pearson – Howden – Dorofeyev2:17
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Howden – Laczynski – Dorofeyev4:17
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:32
xG 1.22–0.16 (89%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud9:31
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud2:44
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).