Fri, Dec 27, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 02 | 18 | 17 | 217 |
| BUF | 411 | 011 | 213 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51BUFZach BensonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:23BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 12:38BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 19:18BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 16:39CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Taylor Hall, Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 3:06CHISeth JonesAssists: Patrick Maroon, Lukas Reichel · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 5:48BUFAlex TuchAssists: Ryan McLeod, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 15:06BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:24CHITJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:43BUFPeyton Krebs: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:43CHIKevin Korchinski: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:28BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Bedard12:52
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev9:40
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Maroon – Kurashev – Reichel10:11
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Foligno – Donato – Nazar9:14
xG 0.31–1.27 (20%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Allan8:15
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Murphy – Korchinski8:29
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Murphy – Allan3:36
xG 0.06–0.13 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Kulich – Benson11:57
xG 0.95–0.13 (88%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka11:46
xG 1.02–0.47 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson13:03
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 3–1
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – McLeod8:13
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram15:22
xG 0.79–0.19 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Samuelsson – Power16:03
xG 0.96–0.49 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Clifton – Bryson14:24
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).