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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 27, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis

Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 7

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH21018112430
STL4121929730

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:20STLRobert ThomasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:47STLZachary BolducAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P1 5:42NSHMark JankowskiAssists: Colton Sissons, Michael McCarron · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P1 9:57STLJordan KyrouAssists: Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P1 13:17NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P1 18:05STLCam FowlerAssists: Dylan Holloway · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P2 5:31NSHNick BlankenburgUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P2 15:29STLPhilip BrobergGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P3 11:00NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
  10. P3 15:10STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–6
  11. P3 18:45STLColton ParaykoENAssists: Nathan Walker · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–7
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 3:38STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
  2. P1 10:46NSHJeremy Lauzon: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 11:50STLCam Fowler: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P1 13:21NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:21STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 16:05NSHAdam Wilsby: Holding2 min
  7. P2 19:38NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
  8. P3 9:52STLMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 13:43STLTyler Tucker: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 13:43NSHMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 14:16NSHNick Blankenburg: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 18:36STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSTL
30Shots on goal30
2.3Expected goals3.3
60Shot attempts49
30Faceoffs won33
4Power plays4
15Penalty minutes15
27Hits26
7Blocked shots19
15Giveaways12
5Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:44

    xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0

  2. Nyquist – O'Reilly – L'Heureux9:52

    xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2

  3. Sissons – McCarron – Evangelista2:34

    xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg10:47

    xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJosi – Lauzon7:41

    xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0

  2. Skjei – Wilsby2:17

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Schenn – Josi3:14

    xG 0.04–0.06 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSaad – Sundqvist – Bolduc7:21

    xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0

  2. Walker – Joseph – Toropchenko6:41

    xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0

  3. Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours10:18

    xG 0.34–0.54 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0

  4. Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:09

    xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2

Defence pairs

  1. Suter – Parayko4:00

    xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0

  2. Suter – Tucker7:37

    xG 0.02–0.03 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Faulk – Broberg13:47

    xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 3.3 xGNSH 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #217 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 11 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).