Fri, Dec 27, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 05 | 28 | 11 | 318 |
| DAL | 114 | 18 | 07 | 00 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 15:08DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 10:36MINJonas BrodinAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:33MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Declan Chisholm · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:35MINBrock FaberGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:02MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P2 11:20MINZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P3 4:39MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Boldy – Rossi15:03
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Khusnutdinov9:47
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Gaudreau11:49
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Gaunce – Shore – Jones8:21
xG 0.12–1.09 (10%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Chisholm14:57
xG 1.04–0.38 (73%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Merrill10:31
xG 0.25–0.75 (25%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber18:17
xG 0.22–1.14 (16%)attempts 5–22goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Blackwell – Marchment3:53
xG 0.70–0.14 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Steel – Bäck – Stankoven10:39
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque9:39
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston11:56
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley2:42
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist10:04
xG 0.83–0.48 (64%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel7:35
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).