Fri, Dec 27, 2024·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Colorado Avalanche 4, Utah Hockey Club 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 014 | 111 | 312 | 437 |
| UTA | 011 | 07 | 117 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:52COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Malinski · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P3 3:42UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 14:44COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:10COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–1
- P3 19:34COLArtturi LehkonenENUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:10UTABarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:29COLGivani Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 12:29COLJere Innala: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:16UTAAlexander Kerfoot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:52UTABarrett Hayton: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 2:36COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta10:39
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:48
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – Colton – Mittelstadt2:41
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen3:26
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Manson2:34
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard11:33
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar14:44
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone8:46
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:01
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:16
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley10:09
xG 0.36–0.93 (28%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Maatta2:13
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kolyachonok8:24
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring5:15
xG 0.00–0.61 (0%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).