Sat, Dec 28, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Seattle Kraken 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 06 | 19 | 312 | 12 | 529 |
| VAN | 16 | 29 | 16 | 01 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:03VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, J.T. Miller · Poke, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 1:18SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 8:36VANConor GarlandAssists: Teddy Blueger, Carson Soucy · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:14VANBrock BoeserAssists: Carson Soucy, Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 3:09VANJake DeBruskAssists: J.T. Miller, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 15:15SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Vince Dunn, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 18:48SEAVince DunnUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 19:10SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–4
- OT 2:15SEAVince DunnGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:58SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:58VANDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:54SEAShane Wright: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23VANCarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P2 3:22VANErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:25VANConor Garland: Holding2 min
- P2 11:40SEAJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sasson won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright6:13
xG 0.59–0.37 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Stephenson – McCann – Sprong5:22
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers10:46
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye8:54
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn11:33
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans2:16
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Mahura – Evans11:04
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – DeBrusk9:44
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Joshua – Sasson9:29
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Garland – Suter – Hoglander8:01
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood7:52
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Brannstrom15:01
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Soucy – Juulsen13:41
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
- Myers – Forbort14:47
xG 0.38–0.79 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).