Sat, Dec 28, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 17 | 16 | 223 |
| CAR | 016 | 112 | 413 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:56NJDPaul CotterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 19:30CARDmitry OrlovAssists: Sean Walker, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:05NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 1:56CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 10:43CARJackson BlakePPGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 12:06CARJack RoslovicAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 16:38CARJack RoslovicENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.80 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:51NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:48NJDJack Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:59CAREric Robinson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:00CARJaccob Slavin: Interference2 min
- P3 6:28CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28NJDTimo Meier: Kneeing5 min · PPG
- P3 6:28NJDTimo Meier: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:24NJDErik Haula: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:24CARDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes11:15
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
- Haula – Cotter – Mercer5:17
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian7:16
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier7:28
xG 0.22–0.64 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hamilton12:00
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler2:16
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic10:31
xG 0.15–0.49 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier8:48
xG 0.81–0.21 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Jost – Robinson – Blake8:08
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Jarvis11:20
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:03
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:46
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield13:39
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Walker2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).