Sat, Dec 28, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 212 | 04 | 325 |
| NYI | 111 | 316 | 28 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:47NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 16:03PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 5:39NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:36NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–3
- P2 9:39NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Alexander Romanov, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 13:49PITNoel AcciariAssists: Matt Nieto, Erik Karlsson · Poke, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 19:56PITRickard RakellAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 14:43NYICasey CizikasAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 19:38NYIAnders LeeENUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.82 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:56NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:17PITPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:59NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:22NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:36NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:44PITErik Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Bunting – Beauvillier4:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Glass – Tomasino – O'Connor3:57
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte8:55
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Beauvillier – Glass – Tomasino2:33
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Graves – Shea8:14
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk13:26
xG 0.30–0.82 (27%)attempts 8–17goals 1–3
- Letang – Joseph13:14
xG 0.27–1.42 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Barzal10:09
xG 2.05–0.12 (95%)attempts 23–4goals 2–1
- Fasching – MacLean – Tsyplakov5:11
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Horvat – Holmstrom6:21
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Duclair12:34
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:22
xG 0.99–0.29 (78%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Dobson – Romanov17:35
xG 1.62–0.94 (63%)attempts 18–17goals 2–2
- Mayfield – George12:02
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).