Sun, Dec 29, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 214 | 216 | 535 |
| CHI | 15 | 010 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Seth Jones, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:12DALJamie BennAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Logan Stankoven · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 8:23DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:46DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 0:10DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 2:55DALMatt DucheneAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:01CHIRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:14DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:42DALLian Bichsel: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:52CHIAlex Vlasic: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:55DALEvgenii Dadonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:00CHITaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:11CHITyler Bertuzzi: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P2 8:11CHITyler Bertuzzi: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 16:39DALEsa Lindell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:39CHIPatrick Maroon: Holding2 min
- P3 15:39CHIPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Stankoven6:57
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Hryckowian4:13
xG 0.06–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck2:40
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Johnston7:52
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Heiskanen – Harley10:07
xG 0.57–0.58 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel9:42
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist11:13
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Kurashev – Reichel5:56
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev6:17
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Donato – Nazar2:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Donato – Bedard2:30
xG 0.01–0.27 (2%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Allan8:33
xG 0.64–0.04 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic2:55
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier8:54
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).