Sun, Dec 29, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 3, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 25 | 18 | 010 | 323 |
| ANA | 16 | 217 | 29 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:49EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 13:52ANACutter GauthierAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 9:10EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 12:19ANADrew HellesonUnassisted · Snap, 0.00 xG3–2
- P2 17:33ANARobby FabbriAssists: Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:24ANARyan StromeGWGAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
- P3 19:08ANAMason McTavishENAssists: Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.61 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:00EDMCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:00ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:36ANAJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
- P1 9:41EDMViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:41EDMTroy Stecher: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:11EDMTroy Stecher: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:57ANARobby Fabbri: Holding2 min
- P3 1:48EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:35
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin2:15
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid4:47
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark6:25
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Stecher8:48
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:06
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse3:49
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry9:14
xG 0.92–0.61 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier11:22
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Killorn – Leason – Carlsson6:27
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Lundeström4:58
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Trouba13:19
xG 1.29–0.69 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Gudas – LaCombe11:50
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov11:18
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).