Sun, Dec 29, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 015 | 210 | 231 |
| PIT | 16 | 120 | 115 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Michael Bunting, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 1:36PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 6:57PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 12:59NYIAnders LeeAssists: Alexander Romanov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 16:10NYIBo HorvatAssists: Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:35NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:17PITNathan Clurman: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:59NYIKyle MacLean: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov4:08
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Fasching – MacLean – Tsyplakov2:39
xG 0.09–0.17 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – MacLean2:21
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Duclair8:27
xG 0.20–0.30 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – George2:20
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Romanov2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Mayfield – George10:52
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Bunting – Beauvillier9:54
xG 1.26–0.31 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:45
xG 1.10–0.27 (80%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Glass – Tomasino – O'Connor7:41
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte8:49
xG 0.13–0.23 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShea – Clurman10:00
xG 1.39–0.08 (94%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Graves – Joseph16:16
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk17:14
xG 0.54–0.78 (41%)attempts 14–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).