Mon, Dec 30, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 07 | 06 | 022 |
| WPG | 09 | 18 | 211 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:18WPGDylan DeMeloGWGAssists: Morgan Barron, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 13:44WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.44 xG0–2
- P3 14:46WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:12NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:21NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:28NSHJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00WPGLogan Stanley: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:17NSHJeremy Lauzon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:29NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Perfetti
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg10:18
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza3:04
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:42
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Sissons – Hinostroza – McCarron5:04
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby12:56
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Blankenburg3:34
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Lauzon10:53
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:23
xG 1.11–0.35 (76%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Barron – Kupari – Gustafsson5:05
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:56
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo10:02
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Pionk12:57
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:24
xG 0.82–0.58 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Coghlan11:37
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).