Tue, Dec 31, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 15 | 28 | 322 |
| VGK | 28 | 08 | 013 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Tomas Hertl, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:48VGKNoah HanifinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 17:27MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:58MTLEmil HeinemanAssists: David Savard · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:09MTLKirby DachGWGAssists: Josh Anderson · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (1)
- P2 9:11MTLChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:17
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman9:24
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook12:11
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak11:26
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson18:31
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Carrier – Guhle17:48
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Savard – Xhekaj12:26
xG 0.50–0.93 (35%)attempts 9–18goals 2–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Hertl – Kolesar11:01
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Pearson – Howden – Dorofeyev10:59
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Rondbjerg – Schwindt – Holtz5:21
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Stone – Olofsson – Eichel13:35
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud17:07
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:41
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin19:46
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).