Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Wrigley Field, ChicagoOutdoor game
St. Louis Blues 6, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 27 | 311 | 110 | 628 |
| CHI | 110 | 015 | 15 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40STLCam FowlerPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:10STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 15:26CHITaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 7:15STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Philip Broberg, Oskar Sundqvist · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 13:34STLDylan HollowayAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 17:51STLCam FowlerAssists: Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.00 xG5–1
- P3 11:15CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Seth Jones, Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 16:18STLAlexandre TexierAssists: Justin Faulk, Nathan Walker · Snap, 0.08 xG6–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:48CHILouis Crevier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:34CHINolan Allan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:41STLPhilip Broberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:58CHITaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:25STLAlexey Toropchenko: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:51CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:51STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:14STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:10STLZachary Bolduc: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:10CHITyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:30STLAlexey Toropchenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Texier – Toropchenko7:40
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – Neighbours – Bolduc7:14
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:58
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Saad – Buchnevich – Thomas10:33
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker8:23
xG 0.74–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg8:59
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 3–0
- Suter – Broberg2:39
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Smith – Reichel7:34
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Mikheyev – Nazar6:59
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Dickinson – Donato5:35
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Donato – Bedard3:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Murphy13:09
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Crevier14:39
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Allan11:37
xG 0.21–1.27 (14%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).