Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 215 | 112 | 019 | 346 |
| MIN | 116 | 316 | 16 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54MINMarco RossiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:00NSHColton SissonsAssists: Brady Skjei, Nick Blankenburg · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:14NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 6:19MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Filip Gustavsson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 8:57MINJonas BrodinAssists: Marcus Foligno, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 12:01NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 17:08MINDeclan ChisholmPPGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 7:07MINMarco RossiPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Brock Faber · Poke, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:42NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:42MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:44MINBen Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:44NSHZachary L'Heureux: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:21NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46NSHNick Blankenburg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:19NSHZachary L'Heureux: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 3:19MINYakov Trenin: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:43NSHBrady Skjei: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27MINMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P3 6:39NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:41MINJon Merrill: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:41NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Novak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg12:03
xG 0.98–0.10 (90%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza9:01
xG 0.81–0.55 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista4:08
xG 0.15–0.35 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Josi8:14
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Josi – Barron6:37
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Blankenburg3:38
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Boldy – Rossi10:30
xG 1.09–0.67 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin7:10
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Shore – Jones – Khusnutdinov4:24
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Eriksson Ek9:15
xG 0.22–0.99 (18%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin3:25
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill9:52
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm4:47
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).