Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 27 | 05 | 222 |
| COL | 114 | 111 | 313 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:51COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Josh Manson, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 10:20WPGRasmus KupariAssists: Morgan Barron, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 16:37COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 18:32WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Logan Stanley, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 7:22COLCasey MittelstadtGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:31COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Joel Kiviranta · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
- P3 19:53COLRoss ColtonENAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (1)
- P1 17:03WPGColin Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBarron – Kupari – Gustafsson6:02
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti3:51
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Ehlers3:25
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti6:58
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Pionk16:53
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 12–17goals 2–1
- Miller – Coghlan11:50
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:17
xG 0.34–0.93 (27%)attempts 13–24goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:54
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Drouin – Rantanen – Colton7:14
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:05
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Drouin – Colton – Mittelstadt3:53
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar19:25
xG 1.28–0.31 (81%)attempts 27–9goals 1–0
- Manson – Girard15:09
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Middleton – Malinski7:36
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).