Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 08 | 15 | 124 |
| CGY | 112 | 06 | 211 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:31CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jakob Pelletier · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 6:15VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Erik Brannstrom · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 9:18CGYNazem KadriGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:58CGYJonathan HuberdeauENUnassisted · Snap, 0.56 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:01CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:01VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:10VANErik Brannstrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:10CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:12CGYKevin Bahl: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:12VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:03VANNoah Juulsen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:03CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:03VANNoah Juulsen: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:46VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:14CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:14VANDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:47VANVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:47CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:37CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – DeBrusk11:02
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Joshua – Sasson4:46
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Joshua – Garland – Suter4:34
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Hoglander – Sasson2:09
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Forbort14:17
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Brannstrom11:06
xG 0.19–0.74 (21%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
- Soucy – Juulsen14:56
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestSharangovich – Pelletier – Zary7:15
xG 1.06–0.08 (93%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil10:48
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato13:03
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr5:12
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley15:48
xG 0.91–0.22 (80%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:56
xG 0.69–0.65 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal11:04
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).