Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Utah Hockey Club 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 111 | 06 | 010 | 127 |
| EDM | 115 | 217 | 16 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 6:00UTAJack McBainAssists: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 4:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 5:13EDMTroy StecherAssists: Connor Brown, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:58EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Ty Emberson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.80 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 8:25UTAJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:41EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00UTALiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00EDMJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:34EDMZach Hyman: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:19UTAIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 19:41UTAMichael Carcone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestMcBain – Guenther – Cooley9:45
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli2:19
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Crouse3:21
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Carcone2:37
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Sergachev10:09
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Maatta3:37
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kolyachonok6:32
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:39
xG 1.12–0.33 (77%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – McDavid5:43
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Hyman4:16
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – McDavid5:16
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:02
xG 0.92–0.40 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Emberson2:19
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse9:34
xG 0.61–0.49 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).