Thu, Jan 2, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 016 | 28 | 340 |
| FLA | 06 | 19 | 011 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 2:17FLAAnton LundellAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 12:30CARJaccob SlavinGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Sean Walker · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:32CARMartin NecasENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.83 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:44FLAAdam Boqvist: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:48CARMartin Necas: Interference2 min
- P2 6:34FLANate Schmidt: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:12FLACarter Verhaeghe: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:04CARTy Smith: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Roslovic – Jarvis10:58
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Martinook – Carrier – Kotkaniemi10:50
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Robinson – Blake – Jaaska5:38
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Necas – Svechnikov12:04
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield15:54
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:17
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Slavin – Walker2:06
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell10:23
xG 0.93–0.48 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich6:42
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen11:29
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:51
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Boqvist10:20
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:56
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Balinskis16:23
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).