Thu, Jan 2, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Utah Hockey Club 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 16 | 19 | 311 | 526 |
| CGY | 110 | 210 | 06 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51UTALawson CrouseAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:12CGYBlake ColemanPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 6:19UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 7:26CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, MacKenzie Weegar · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 15:14CGYBrayden PachalAssists: Matt Coronato, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:37UTAClayton KellerAssists: Olli Maatta, Barrett Hayton · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 2:35UTALawson CrouseGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:00UTAKevin StenlundENAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 16:17CGYMatt Coronato: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:36UTALiam O'Brien: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:59UTAMichael Kesselring: Interference2 min
- P2 5:24CGYNazem Kadri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:41UTAJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:41CGYKevin Rooney: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:41CGYNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:41UTALiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:55UTANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:32CGYBrayden Pachal: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:15CGYJoel Hanley: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 10:51UTAClayton Keller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:58
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Crouse5:18
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone6:16
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley9:12
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Sergachev12:56
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Välimäki2:53
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Välimäki7:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestSharangovich – Pelletier – Zary9:21
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato11:50
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr5:21
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil8:57
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Bahl15:54
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Bean – Pachal9:42
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Weegar – Hanley11:39
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).