Thu, Jan 2, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 011 | 16 | 225 |
| VGK | 04 | 312 | 211 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21PHITyson FoersterAssists: Noah Cates, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 0:51VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 2:13VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:22VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 2:46VGKAlexander HoltzAssists: Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 4:56PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:24VGKTanner PearsonENAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:00PHIRyan Poehling: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:42VGKNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster11:10
xG 1.09–0.65 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Couturier – Hathaway – Farabee8:55
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Poehling12:35
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Laughton – Frost – Michkov10:34
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale11:21
xG 0.70–0.13 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula16:00
xG 0.92–0.63 (59%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York16:41
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Hertl – Dorofeyev10:11
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Stone – Olofsson – Eichel8:49
xG 0.56–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Kolesar – Howden2:51
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Hertl – Kolesar3:54
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore16:40
xG 0.91–0.43 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud14:10
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin18:04
xG 0.64–1.09 (37%)attempts 21–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).