Thu, Jan 2, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vancouver Canucks 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 110 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 422 |
| SEA | 19 | 010 | 27 | 01 | 0 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:17VANMax SassonAssists: Danton Heinen, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 7:49VANConor GarlandAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 5:35VANTyler MyersAssists: J.T. Miller, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 9:05SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Shane Wright, Brandon Montour · Slap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 19:07SEAVince DunnAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SEA Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
- 2. VAN J.T. Miller scored
- 3. SEA Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 4. VAN Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 5. SEA Matty Beniers stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:43VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:43SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:04VANJ.T. Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:15SEAAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:48SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Garland – Suter8:52
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Sherwood8:48
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – DeBrusk6:58
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Heinen – Hoglander – Sasson8:19
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Desharnais15:16
xG 0.84–0.26 (76%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Soucy – Juulsen13:23
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Myers – Brisebois13:53
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright7:05
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Burakovsky – McCann9:36
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye8:54
xG 0.24–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wright2:02
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour9:55
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Mahura – Evans7:04
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Montour – Dunn5:28
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).