Fri, Jan 3, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 019 | 110 | 240 |
| CHI | 111 | 18 | 27 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Connor Bedard · Snap, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 18:24MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:05CHINick FolignoAssists: Wyatt Kaiser, Jason Dickinson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 3:01CHIPatrick MaroonGWGAssists: Ryan Donato, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 9:45MTLEmil HeinemanPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Kirby Dach · Bat, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 15:51CHINick FolignoAssists: Taylor Hall, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:58MTLArber Xhekaj: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 1:58MTLJayden Struble: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:29CHIPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:29MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:09MTLAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:57CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CHIAlex Vlasic: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:10CHIPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:33MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Donato
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPezzetta – Dach – Newhook5:09
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman7:09
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak8:31
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:25
xG 0.98–1.23 (44%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Xhekaj7:13
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle14:17
xG 0.81–0.79 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Matheson – Hutson16:07
xG 1.34–1.48 (48%)attempts 26–16goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hall – Dickinson8:22
xG 1.01–0.68 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Bertuzzi – Mikheyev – Bedard7:59
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Donato6:50
xG 0.34–0.52 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Dach – Nazar7:13
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Crevier14:35
xG 0.72–0.88 (45%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
- Brodie – Allan11:37
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Kaiser13:06
xG 0.38–1.03 (27%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).