Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 4, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 18 | 214 | 433 |
| WSH | 110 | 38 | 310 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00NYRChris KreiderUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:46WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 2:29WSHLars EllerAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:08WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Nic Dowd, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 16:26NYRSam CarrickAssists: Adam Edstrom · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 18:13WSHConnor McMichaelPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 8:32NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 10:50WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 13:04NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.16 xG4–5
- P3 14:00WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–6
- P3 19:22WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:35NYRWill Borgen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:06WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:06NYRBrett Berard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23WSHBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:39NYRRyan Lindgren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:20WSHNic Dowd: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:00NYRWill Cuylle: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:44WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:44
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad7:50
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Chytil – Berard – Cuylle8:19
xG 0.54–0.55 (49%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Carrick – Vesey – Edstrom7:01
xG 0.46–0.60 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider12:22
xG 0.91–0.56 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Fox – Lindgren12:24
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Borgen – Miller13:58
xG 0.46–0.67 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 2–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Raddysh6:13
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 1–2
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime7:16
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas11:07
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Eller – Vrana – McMichael7:04
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun2:31
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry4:20
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin8:05
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).