Sat, Jan 4, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New Jersey Devils 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 012 | 110 | 18 | 230 |
| SJS | 111 | 08 | 25 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:40SJSNikolai KovalenkoAssists: William Eklund, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 4:19NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 1:53SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Collin Graf · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 5:07NJDPaul CotterAssists: Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 19:35SJSCody CeciGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:26NJDJonas Siegenthaler: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:29NJDBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:32SJSMacklin Celebrini: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:51NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Holding2 min
- P2 9:03NJDNico Hischier: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27SJSWill Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lazar – Bastian8:18
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Cotter – Mercer8:55
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes9:25
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier10:35
xG 0.29–0.89 (25%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic12:41
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Dillon – Hamilton14:27
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hughes16:20
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Zetterlund – Eklund11:02
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Kostin9:36
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf10:10
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Kunin – Kovalenko8:14
xG 0.09–0.92 (9%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Rutta11:24
xG 0.74–0.31 (71%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Liljegren15:11
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Ceci – Thrun16:39
xG 0.53–1.18 (31%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).