Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 110 | 27 | 427 |
| CAR | 08 | 09 | 04 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:03MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:30MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 9:20MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marco Rossi, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 17:14MINMats ZuccarelloENAssists: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:32MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 7:52MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:52CARSeth Jarvis: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:34CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:33MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:18CARWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:51CARPyotr Kochetkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:28MINBrock Faber: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Eriksson Ek8:53
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin9:21
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi12:20
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 10–17goals 2–0
- Gaunce – Jones – Khusnutdinov5:55
xG 0.03–0.58 (4%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Faber21:17
xG 0.81–0.77 (51%)attempts 15–27goals 1–0
- Merrill – Dermott5:56
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm12:48
xG 0.41–0.74 (36%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Roslovic – Jarvis11:02
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Necas – Svechnikov3:09
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov5:34
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Robinson – Drury – Blake6:14
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:42
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Slavin – Walker3:27
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Walker – Smith9:35
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).