Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 09 | 417 | 433 |
| CBJ | 118 | 18 | 413 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:01CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:15CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 3:44CBJMikael PyyhtiaSHAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.21 xG0–3
- P3 4:54STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 5:25CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 6:55STLCam FowlerAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 7:24CBJDmitri VoronkovGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Jordan Harris · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 12:54STLColton ParaykoAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Alexandre Texier · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 16:16STLBrayden SchennAssists: Cam Fowler, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 18:59CBJMathieu OlivierENAssists: Ivan Provorov, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.56 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:07CBJMathieu Olivier: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:52STLTyler Tucker: Interference2 min
- P2 2:00STLBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:34STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:33CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway13:19
xG 1.06–0.37 (74%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Saad – Sundqvist – Buchnevich2:03
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Walker – Joseph – Toropchenko6:12
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Sundqvist – Texier – Neighbours5:44
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Tucker2:18
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Fowler – Broberg12:38
xG 0.83–0.49 (63%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Tucker – Perunovich2:58
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov14:38
xG 1.03–0.57 (64%)attempts 27–18goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Pyyhtia3:09
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Fantilli7:36
xG 0.07–0.26 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Sillinger10:25
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov3:00
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro20:20
xG 1.17–1.21 (49%)attempts 26–27goals 1–0
- Provorov – Mateychuk13:11
xG 0.38–0.56 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).