Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Montréal Canadiens 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 08 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 223 |
| COL | 18 | 05 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:01COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 13:25MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 2. COL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 3. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 4. MTL Kirby Dach scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:01MTLCole Caufield: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:43MTLAlex Newhook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:10COLRoss Colton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:52MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:34COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:13MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:16MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
- OT 1:32COLDevon Toews: Cross checking2 min
- OT 1:32MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- OT 2:03COLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman5:09
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Evans – Suzuki – Caufield2:26
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Dach – Newhook2:11
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Armia – Dach – Newhook4:16
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Xhekaj6:17
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson5:53
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:06
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen9:41
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Parssinen – Olausson – Innala4:25
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Drouin – Colton – Mittelstadt2:41
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:47
xG 0.61–0.42 (60%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Manson – Malinski3:16
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard13:03
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).