Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 214 | 210 | 428 |
| CGY | 011 | 110 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 11:37NSHRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 18:22CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 9:19NSHFedor SvechkovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 18:33NSHRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Steven Stamkos, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:10NSHFedor Svechkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:41NSHJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:46CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:03NSHLuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:04CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09NSHMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:09CGYJakob Pelletier: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:16CGYMatt Coronato: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:16NSHJonathan Marchessault: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg8:13
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Evangelista – Svechkov8:16
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza8:28
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Sissons – McCarron – Wiesblatt7:06
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Josi2:18
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stastney12:10
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Josi – Barron14:14
xG 0.42–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil11:43
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary9:03
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Kuzmenko3:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:29
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl12:41
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 29–3goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal12:02
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Weegar – Bean2:31
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).