Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Edmonton Oilers 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 114 | 18 | 432 |
| SEA | 04 | 17 | 17 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:18EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 11:52EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 15:56SEAChandler StephensonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 7:27SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Vince Dunn, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:02EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.82 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:24EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:01EDMEvan Bouchard: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:53SEATye Kartye: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Brown – McDavid13:27
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Henrique – Hyman – Janmark10:47
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:55
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Skinner – Kapanen – Ryan5:35
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:06
xG 1.02–0.31 (77%)attempts 26–14goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher10:16
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse10:16
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright9:41
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers10:32
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Tanev – Kartye – Meyers6:32
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Burakovsky – McCann10:37
xG 0.07–0.93 (7%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dunn2:33
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans2:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura2:59
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).