Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 5, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 219 | 19 | 110 | 11 | 539 |
| NYR | 39 | 09 | 18 | 00 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:55NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Will Borgen, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 11:24NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 12:57DALMatt DucheneAssists: Esa Lindell · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–3
- P1 15:56DALEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Thomas Harley · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 13:14DALJason RobertsonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:56NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 17:21DALThomas HarleyAssists: Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 2:17DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.25 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:21NYRBraden Schneider: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:12DALNils Lundkvist: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:20DALThomas Harley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 0:25NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hintz – Robertson11:42
xG 1.06–0.23 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Steel – Bourque – Stankoven11:33
xG 0.50–0.79 (39%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Benn – Duchene – Johnston13:30
xG 0.33–0.66 (34%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Hyry7:19
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley14:42
xG 1.03–0.45 (69%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Heiskanen4:17
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Lundkvist2:01
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière16:51
xG 1.58–0.50 (76%)attempts 23–10goals 3–1
- Smith – Zibanejad – Brodzinski11:38
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Edstrom9:26
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Chytil – Berard – Cuylle6:12
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Miller16:08
xG 1.05–0.58 (65%)attempts 18–17goals 2–1
- Vaakanainen – Schneider14:02
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren16:05
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).