Tue, Jan 7, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 010 | 211 | 01 | 2 | 429 |
| PIT | 03 | 111 | 27 | 02 | 0 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:51PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 0:24PITRickard RakellAssists: Erik Karlsson, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 10:09PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 12:05CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 17:24CBJAdam FantilliPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 2. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 3. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 4. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:53PITErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:09PITBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli5:18
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov10:29
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese3:00
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Fantilli7:32
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro19:03
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk16:18
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Werenski – Christiansen2:00
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell14:31
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Hayes – Puljujarvi – O'Connor11:27
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Glass10:23
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte11:34
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson19:15
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Joseph – Pickering14:08
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk19:22
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).