Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 16 | 112 | 228 |
| WPG | 312 | 010 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30WPGMorgan BarronUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG0–1
- P1 6:46WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:36WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Ville Heinola · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 16:45NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 7:51WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 9:25NSHRoman JosiAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 17:55WPGNino NiederreiterENAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:59WPGDylan Coghlan: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:57WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P2 16:18WPGNeal Pionk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:43NSHVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:43WPGRasmus Kupari: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:42NSHJustin Barron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:31WPGLogan Stanley: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:05WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza6:10
xG 0.76–0.21 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Sissons – McCarron11:28
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Novak – Svechkov2:32
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg5:53
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Blankenburg2:02
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Josi2:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Skjei2:20
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBarron – Kupari – Gustafsson8:14
xG 1.37–0.15 (90%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:51
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:19
xG 0.81–0.97 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo7:39
xG 0.23–0.47 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoghlan – Heinola9:11
xG 1.65–0.18 (90%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey8:36
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Coghlan2:15
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).