Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 19 | 08 | 14 | 333 |
| ANA | 011 | 15 | 111 | 01 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:04CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Blake Coleman, Joel Hanley · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:34ANAAlex KillornAssists: Isac Lundeström, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:44CGYNazem KadriAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Joel Hanley · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 7:36ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 2:05CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:50ANARoss Johnston: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:19CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:34CGYJakob Pelletier: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:34ANADrew Helleson: Kneeing5 min
- P2 6:34ANADrew Helleson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:17CGYJake Bean: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:35ANAPavel Mintyukov: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil9:56
xG 0.60–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato12:32
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Pelletier2:06
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary4:05
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley13:41
xG 0.86–0.07 (93%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Weegar – Bean4:07
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl14:29
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – McTavish – Gauthier12:01
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Lundeström – Carlsson6:59
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Nesterenko6:21
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Lundeström4:16
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHelleson – Mintyukov5:46
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Trouba2:04
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Gudas2:42
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).