Wed, Jan 8, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 1, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 03 | 121 | 06 | 01 | 131 |
| WSH | 16 | 05 | 02 | 15 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:27WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Matt Roy, Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 19:23VANConor GarlandPPAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 4:19WSHPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.37 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:19WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:19WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:19WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:19WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:19VANKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:19VANQuinn Hughes: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:41VANVincent Desharnais: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:51WSHJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:34WSHJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:38VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00VANNoah Juulsen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Hoglander – Sasson6:41
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Garland – Suter8:50
xG 0.76–0.35 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood10:11
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Lekkerimäki8:19
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes15:21
xG 1.88–0.73 (72%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Soucy – Desharnais5:46
xG 0.52–0.23 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Forbort – Juulsen6:27
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime9:04
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael9:30
xG 0.79–0.72 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Raddysh – Miroshnichenko5:25
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas10:22
xG 0.03–1.14 (2%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin6:59
xG 0.70–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Chychrun3:30
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin4:14
xG 0.05–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).