Wed, Jan 8, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Florida Panthers 4, Utah Hockey Club 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 113 | 313 | 433 |
| UTA | 04 | 016 | 16 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:05FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 1:48FLAJesper BoqvistGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 13:41UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 17:59FLAJesper BoqvistENAssists: Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.38 xG3–1
- P3 19:38FLAEetu LuostarinenENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39FLAMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:16UTABarrett Hayton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:03FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:09FLANiko Mikkola: Kneeing2 min
- P3 10:09FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09UTAKevin Stenlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:56FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00UTALiam O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell10:19
xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen9:34
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich6:15
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:51
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Balinskis13:32
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:47
xG 0.94–1.30 (42%)attempts 26–21goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola13:53
xG 0.43–0.79 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:36
xG 1.02–0.61 (63%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Crouse9:00
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – McBain2:13
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Maccelli7:30
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Sergachev13:49
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Cole – Maatta2:55
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Kesselring11:03
xG 0.78–0.89 (47%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).