Thu, Apr 17, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 5, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 16 | 411 | 529 |
| LAK | 010 | 05 | 116 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:15CGYNazem KadriAssists: Adam Klapka, Brayden Pachal · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P3 6:05CGYSam MortonGWGAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 7:28CGYNazem KadriAssists: Dryden Hunt, Yegor Sharangovich · Slap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 8:24CGYZayne ParekhAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 11:35CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matt Coronato · Snap, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 13:49LAKTaylor WardPPAssists: Jordan Spence, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:39LAKSamuel Helenius: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:32CGYJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:18CGYZayne Parekh: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:16LAKQuinton Byfield: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:45CGYHunter Brzustewicz: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Farabee – Sharangovich9:57
xG 0.34–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hunt – Lomberg – Morton8:26
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kadri – Hunt – Suniev2:37
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Kadri – Klapka – Suniev7:36
xG 0.44–0.55 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPachal – Brzustewicz14:13
xG 1.07–0.26 (80%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Bahl – Parekh15:38
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 3–0
- Weegar – Miromanov13:29
xG 0.69–0.98 (42%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Turcotte – Malott2:02
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Turcotte – Malott – Ward2:15
xG 0.16–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kuzmenko2:02
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Lewis – Thomas – Helenius3:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke15:18
xG 1.02–0.81 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
- Doughty – Anderson16:25
xG 0.61–0.82 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Gavrikov – Spence14:24
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).