Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 25 | 06 | 01 | 223 |
| NYR | 18 | 19 | 012 | 13 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05NYRAdam FoxPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:03NJDJack HughesAssists: Brett Pesce, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:28NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:13NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:48NYRSam CarrickGWGAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:01NYRAdam Fox: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:29NYRBrett Berard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:00NJDKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34NYRAlexis Lafrenière: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:40NJDNico Hischier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:39NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:34NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMacDermid – Lazar – Bastian2:50
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier11:27
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Dowling – Cotter – Mercer9:41
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes9:57
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 8–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic15:17
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton9:14
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hughes17:27
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Zibanejad – Cuylle11:31
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:21
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Kaliyev – Berard6:29
xG 0.03–0.18 (15%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe6:42
xG 0.03–0.43 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Miller15:36
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren12:51
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider10:30
xG 0.13–0.76 (15%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).