Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Seattle Kraken 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 112 | 08 | 111 | 231 |
| CBJ | 17 | 414 | 13 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:58CBJSean KuralyAssists: Ivan Provorov, Mathieu Olivier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:08SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Shane Wright, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:29CBJLuca Del Bel BelluzAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 10:53CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Adam Fantilli, Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 12:27CBJDenton MateychukAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Luca Del Bel Belluz · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 15:45CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 8:44SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 19:31CBJKirill MarchenkoENAssists: Denton Mateychuk · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:02SEAJared McCann: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:43CBJMikael Pyyhtia: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:10CBJDante Fabbro: Interference2 min
- P3 17:09CBJOwen Sillinger: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers12:57
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – McCann – Wright3:08
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Burakovsky – Tolvanen2:20
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright6:41
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans6:37
xG 0.29–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:18
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Montour – Dunn2:58
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Johnson – Del Bel Belluz9:16
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 3–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese11:01
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:01
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Labanc – Pyyhtia – Sillinger8:40
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Christiansen11:47
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Provorov – Mateychuk14:47
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 10–19goals 2–1
- Werenski – Fabbro18:00
xG 0.34–0.79 (30%)attempts 13–28goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).