Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 6, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 111 | 38 | 627 |
| MIN | 14 | 08 | 013 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:52COLRoss ColtonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 18:27MINZach BogosianAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 13:00COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 4:23COLParker KellyAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 7:42COLArtturi LehkonenSHAssists: Josh Manson · Snap, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 8:48COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.07 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:19MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:41MINJake Middleton: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:55COLJuuso Parssinen: Interference2 min
- P3 0:40MINYakov Trenin: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:04COLCasey Mittelstadt: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:37COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen11:18
xG 0.72–0.49 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Colton – Mittelstadt – Parssinen2:15
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Mittelstadt – O'Connor – Kiviranta8:59
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Colton – Parssinen9:19
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Toews3:22
xG 0.00–0.01 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Malinski3:56
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- de Haan – Manson10:27
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Eriksson Ek9:25
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin9:35
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi14:00
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Shore – Jones – Khusnutdinov6:04
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Middleton14:13
xG 0.89–0.54 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 1–2
- Dermott – Jiricek3:11
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dermott – Chisholm3:17
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).