Thu, Jan 9, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Islanders 4, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 26 | 19 | 421 |
| VGK | 08 | 011 | 011 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:04NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:30NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 10:41NYIBo HorvatAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 17:26NYICasey CizikasENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–0
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:46NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:13VGKVictor Olofsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Duclair – Horvat11:52
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Martin – Engvall – MacLean5:54
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Tsyplakov10:21
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Barzal13:33
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov17:22
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 10–17goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Cholowski10:36
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:31
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Kolesar – Howden3:59
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Hertl – Dorofeyev9:45
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Rondbjerg – Schwindt – Holtz5:44
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg4:01
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin18:54
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 26–17goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:43
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:41
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).