Fri, Jan 10, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 02 | 28 | 315 |
| DET | 14 | 118 | 36 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Justin Holl · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:56CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Connor Bedard, Ilya Mikheyev · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 0:41DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 5:00DETAndrew CoppAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 7:07DETAlbert JohanssonGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond, Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 10:16CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Nolan Allan, Colton Dach · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 17:06CHITeuvo TeravainenUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 18:21DETMarco KasperENAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.75 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:32CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:44CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:50CHIPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:00CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Dach – Nazar8:31
xG 0.26–0.24 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Donato – Kurashev9:07
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Donato – Bedard3:06
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hall – Dickinson9:07
xG 0.00–0.54 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Allan9:13
xG 0.19–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Brodie – Kaiser4:03
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Allan4:23
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper10:48
xG 1.10–0.06 (95%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:58
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren9:44
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Motte – Rasmussen – Veleno8:07
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider18:30
xG 1.02–0.22 (82%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson14:27
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Holl – Gustafsson11:25
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).