Sat, Jan 11, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 4, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 418 |
| FLA | 114 | 014 | 213 | 02 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Mason Lohrei, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 15:29FLAEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Anton Lundell · Bat, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:11BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Trent Frederic · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 0:43FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:06BOSOliver WahlstromAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:57FLASam ReinhartAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 4:58BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Mason Lohrei, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:50FLAAnton Lundell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:07FLAEetu Luostarinen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:30BOSMason Lohrei: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:05BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:05FLANate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P1 19:00BOSMorgan Geekie: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:29FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:29FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:29BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:33BOSAndrew Peeke: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:02FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:18FLASam Bennett: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Brazeau – Wahlstrom5:18
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie8:41
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Koepke – Beecher – McLaughlin3:43
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm10:27
xG 0.06–0.82 (7%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zadorov – McAvoy2:04
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei9:19
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Peeke12:43
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen11:28
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich3:24
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:24
xG 0.35–0.15 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell8:00
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Mikkola12:32
xG 1.09–0.39 (73%)attempts 28–9goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Forsling16:42
xG 0.87–0.52 (63%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Bjornfot – Balinskis8:59
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).