Sat, Jan 11, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Seattle Kraken 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 07 | 213 | 49 | 629 |
| BUF | 215 | 09 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37BUFSam LaffertyAssists: Peyton Krebs, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 17:17BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:48SEARyker EvansAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:12SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Josh Mahura, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 3:08SEAOliver BjorkstrandGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 3:46SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Josh Mahura, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 5:26SEAKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Jared McCann, Shane Wright · Snap, 0.30 xG5–2
- P3 16:25SEABrandon TanevENAssists: Jared McCann, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.56 xG6–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:47BUFRyan McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:29SEAMatty Beniers: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:42BUFDennis Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:42SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:42BUFDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:07SEAKaapo Kakko: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:36BUFJacob Bryson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:24SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:24BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:24SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00SEAChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:17BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:04SEABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright7:01
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers11:15
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky8:37
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 4–14goals 2–0
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye5:17
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dunn2:59
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Mahura – Evans12:59
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn12:43
xG 0.09–0.50 (15%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Peterka7:29
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson5:37
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Peterka – Kozak3:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lafferty – McLeod – Benson2:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Bryson2:26
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power9:58
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Byram12:55
xG 0.73–0.61 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).