Sat, Jan 11, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 016 | 18 | 08 | 04 | 1 | 236 |
| MTL | 07 | 112 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:14MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 17:34DALJamie BennAssists: Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Patrik Laine stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 4. DAL Wyatt Johnston stopped
- 5. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:14MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:14MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:14DALMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26DALMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00DALColin Blackwell: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:42DALMavrik Bourque: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hintz – Robertson11:23
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Steel – Bourque – Stankoven10:39
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Hyry6:08
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Johnston12:06
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Harley12:07
xG 1.08–0.79 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lyubushkin11:33
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin3:36
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman10:38
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:33
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook11:41
xG 0.56–0.72 (44%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:16
xG 0.45–0.78 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson19:01
xG 0.80–0.48 (63%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj10:42
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle17:21
xG 0.86–1.56 (36%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).