Sat, Jan 11, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 315 | 110 | 434 |
| CHI | 28 | 17 | 07 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jason Dickinson, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:01CHINick FolignoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 0:22EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 10:03CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Nolan Allan, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 15:49EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Ty Emberson, Vasily Podkolzin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 17:30EDMCorey PerryAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 7:18EDMZach HymanPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:00CHILouis Crevier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00EDMViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:18CHINolan Allan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:07EDMAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid14:44
xG 1.79–0.33 (84%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin8:48
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Draisaitl – Arvidsson3:46
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Janmark – Podkolzin3:55
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:42
xG 1.40–0.26 (85%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher13:08
xG 1.01–0.14 (88%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Kulak – Emberson10:08
xG 0.54–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Reichel – Dach – Nazar7:13
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–13goals 0–0
- Maroon – Hall – Donato10:15
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Mikheyev – Bedard13:35
xG 0.15–0.71 (18%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
- Foligno – Teravainen – Dickinson12:50
xG 0.35–1.58 (18%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Brodie – Vlasic2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Martinez – Crevier2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (3%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic2:44
xG 0.00–0.12 (2%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).