Sat, Jan 11, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 115 | 04 | 230 |
| STL | 09 | 08 | 115 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:38CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 16:51CBJCole SillingerPPGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Luca Del Bel Belluz · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 19:48STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 14:57STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:11CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:01STLOskar Sundqvist: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:50CBJKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:23CBJZach Werenski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli11:06
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Sillinger8:31
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Pyyhtia9:46
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Del Bel Belluz9:24
xG 0.00–0.62 (0%)attempts 0–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Werenski – Provorov2:20
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Christiansen10:21
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro16:15
xG 0.63–0.73 (46%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway12:40
xG 0.48–0.10 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours2:56
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Saad – Buchnevich – Thomas8:43
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Neighbours – Bolduc8:04
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko14:58
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Suter – Tucker11:08
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg12:50
xG 0.88–0.80 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).