Sat, Jan 11, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 05 | 07 | 022 |
| WPG | 111 | 112 | 16 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:53WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 19:03WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Adam Lowry, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 9:01WPGDylan Coghlan: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:42WPGKyle Connor: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen15:34
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta4:43
xG 0.10–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Felhaber – Kelly – Innala3:17
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Colton – Parssinen5:14
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski2:20
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Manson – Malinski4:51
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Middleton – Malinski7:44
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:05
xG 1.16–0.18 (87%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Lowry – Ehlers – Iafallo13:56
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Toninato – Barron – Gustafsson7:11
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Kupari – Perfetti10:41
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:18
xG 0.91–0.16 (85%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Stanley – Coghlan9:14
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk18:23
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).