Sat, Jan 11, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Rangers 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 112 | 12 | 226 |
| VGK | 06 | 112 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:16VGKMark StonePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 9:54NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 5:57NYRAdam EdstromGWGAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Matt Rempe · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:08NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:09NYRReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:05NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Zibanejad – Cuylle12:19
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Kaliyev11:11
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:15
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Edstrom – Rempe4:34
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider13:34
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Borgen – Miller17:08
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren16:16
xG 0.85–0.89 (49%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Kolesar6:35
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Howden4:17
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Howden – Dorofeyev6:36
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz7:14
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud12:55
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin18:00
xG 0.79–0.64 (55%)attempts 23–19goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore19:13
xG 0.53–1.17 (31%)attempts 20–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).